Budget conundrum in public education caused by enrollment declines in big cities

Public school enrollment is decreasing in America’s largest cities, but spending and staffing rates have continued to grow.

A new report from the Manhattan Institute compiled data from nine of the nation’s most populated cities and found significant enrollment decline between 2013 and 2023.

New York City, for example, lost over 144,000 students, Los Angeles lost 102,000 and Chicago lost 73,000.

Nationwide in all cities and towns, public school enrollment fell by over 1 million students (2%). But the number of teachers actually grew 11% between 2011 and 2021.

Educator population trends held true in big cities as well.

Public school staffs have grown in places such as Dallas (28%), San Diego (15%), Philadelphia (13%) and New York (13%).  

“For more than a decade, many states and cities have adopted policies protecting school districts from the fiscal consequences of fewer students,” the researchers explained. “Sensible budgeting would dictate that school resources be tightly tied to student enrollment. But special interests are at play. 

“Powerful teachers’ unions have long called for higher salaries for teachers instructing fewer students – and appear to have gotten what they’ve asked for.” 

Over the past decade, San Diego had a 135% increase in per-pupil spending (from $10,763 to $25,345).  

Budgets in Los Angeles and Austin grew by 129% and 106%, respectively, both exceeding $32,000 per-student. 

“It is evident that school districts have yet to adjust their staffing and budgeting to the reality of fewer students,” researchers wrote. “This development is likely to alter education policy and politics in significant ways. There should be renewed attention to whether lower teacher-to-student ratios raise student performance enough to make it worth the increased costs.”  

The education establishment has long argued lower student-teacher ratios are a key to academic achievement. But the Manhattan Institute questions whether the quality of a school’s teachers might be more important than the mere quantity. 

“Although class sizes have been falling for decades, student performance has not been rising in commensurable measure,” the report concludes. “States and cities should curtail spending, expand school choice (especially charter schools), and encourage accountability by seeking reforms that encourage the best teachers to stay in the classroom.”