Americans still fleeing blue states, as the political center of gravity shifts south on jobs, taxes, prices

Two independent moving companies have again released results that show blue states are losing population to red states.

Texas reclaimed its position as the nation’s top growth state in 2025, according to the latest U-Haul Growth Index released this week.

Texas and several other Sunbelt and southern states dominated the rankings for inbound movers, again reflecting broader demographic shifts over the past year, said the survey.

Eight of the bottom 10 states are in the northern U.S., with five of those population losers in markets located in the Northeast and three in the Midwest. 

But there’s more to it than just frigid temperatures.  

“Seven of the top 10 growth states currently feature Republican governors, and nine of those states went red in the last presidential election,” noted U-Haul. “Conversely, nine of the bottom 10 growth states feature Democrat governors, and seven of those states went blue in the last presidential election.” 

Last year, the Associated Press called the population shift to Republican states the “Democrats’ crisis of the future,” in the wake of Kamala Harris’s loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential elections. 

The U-Haul index racks net gains and losses of one-way truck, trailer and container rentals as a proxy for population movement. 

With the latest ranking, Texas regained the top title it held for much of the past decade. 

Florida followed closely in second place, with North Carolina, Tennessee and South Carolina rounding out the top five. 

Last year, The Lion reported South Carolina was at the top of the list for inbound migration. 

Other fast-growing destinations include Washington, Arizona, Idaho, Alabama and Georgia.  

At the bottom of the U-Haul list, states such as California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Massachusetts ranked among the slowest in net growth, reflecting continued out-bound migration from high-cost coastal states. 

California posted its sixth consecutive year with the greatest out-bound migration on the index, though departures were modestly lower than in the previous year. 

While the U-Haul measurements do not equate directly to population or economic growth, they offer a robust snapshot of where people are landing when they relocate. 

Similar results were released at the first of the year in the United Van Lines 2025 National Movers Study. 

That survey focuses on inbound and outbound percentages of household moves handled through their company’s network.  

That study found that Oregon led the nation in inbound migration in 2025 with 65% inbound moves, followed by West Virginia and South Carolina. 

The Northeast and some high-cost states such as New Jersey, New York and California continued to see significant outbound migration in the survey, reinforcing a broader trend of relocation away from those elite coastal bastions. 

Economic factors such as affordability, job opportunities, climate and lifestyle continue to be cited as key drivers behind relocation decisions, with many movers trading higher cost metro areas for regions offering lower housing costs and warmer weather. 

United Van Lines’ analysis also showed that the reasons Americans move are changing.  

While employment opportunities and company transfers (26%) still rank high, among the top motivators cited by movers are a desire to be close to family (29%) and retirement (14%). 

Still, some of the higher outbound states such as California, New York and New Jersey are continuing to attract young people who are seeking to launch their career, the survey found.  

Taken together, the U-Haul and United Van Lines studies underscore a continuation of long-term trends that place greater emphasis on affordability, family ties and lifestyle preferences in relocation decisions. 

As Americans reassess their living situations in the wake of the affordability crisis created by the Biden years, migration patterns remain a critical indicator of changing demographic, economic and political landscapes across the country.  

“At the end of the day, Democrats have to be able to win in the South or compete in the South” if they want to control the levers of government, Michael Li, Senior Counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, told the AP. “Otherwise, it’s a really uphill battle every time.” 

Li predicted that America’s center of political gravity would shift to the south, with more southern congressional seats than ever before in the country’s history. 

Experts told AP last year the population shifts alone would cause Democrats to lose 11 to 12 seats in Congress at the next census.