Analysis: Shutdown showdown previews 2026 midterms 

Democrat Senate Boss Chuck Schumer just vetoed another GOP attempt to reopen the government, even as air-traffic controllers missed their payday and U.S. soldiers face canceled paychecks.

The Senate on Tuesday voted 54-45 to move a bill forward that would open the government, falling six votes short of the 60 needed under the rules of the Senate to cut off debate.

Democrat Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada supported the GOP, while Republican Sen. Rand Paul was a no vote with the Democrats. 

On Sept. 19, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a “clean continuing resolution” or CR, on a 217-212 vote, with only one Democrat crossing the aisle to support reopening the government. 

While the GOP holds the majority in the Senate, the 60 votes needed to move the CR to an actual vote has been elusive with the Democrats vetoing the proposal in 13 straight attempts. 

Democrats previously passed a version of the CR under then-President Biden, but they now want to add riders to it, which would include more funding for Obamacare subsidies, deny federal staffing cuts and undo Medicare reforms. 

The fighting reveals the likely undertones to be featured in the 2026 midterm campaigns. 

Some Democrat allies are balking at being used as a bargaining chip to essentially undo Trump reforms he fought for while campaigning and passed through Congress after being sworn in. 

The largest federal employee union, American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), a key progressive ally, is publicly urging Democrats to end the shutdown with no riders and no games. 

“[I]t’s time to pass a clean continuing resolution and end this shutdown today,” wrote AFGE National President Everett Kelley. “No half measures, and no gamesmanship. Put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay – today.” 

Some in the GOP said the loss of the union shows cracks are beginning to form between progressives and more moderate Democrats. 

“I think the Democrats are losing their base,” Rep. Keith Self of Texas told The Stand. “When you lose the largest federal union, you’ve lost part of your base.” 

Still, Vice President JD Vance promised the military they’d get their checks by Friday. 

“We believe that we can continue to pay the troops on Friday,” he said after addressing a closed-door Senate GOP meeting, Politico reported. “Unfortunately, we’re not going to be able to pay everybody, because we’ve been handed a very bad hand by the Democrats.” 

Vance noted one of the reasons why the administration laid off so many workers was to preserve the ability to pay the troops. 

He said the government is also working to keep open programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, otherwise known as food stamps. 

Politico reported the consensus among the GOP in the Senate is to dig in and not cave to Democrat demands. 

Polls, which are shocking even progressive data masters, are showing the shutdown is helping the GOP. 

“You might think that given that Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But, in fact, it hasn’t!” said CNN Senior Political Analyst Harry Enten. 

A separate poll by Reuters/Ipsos showed Trump’s approval rating has remained steady.  

In the meantime, Democrats have scheduled a caucus to hear from their members, who might be sweating the shutdown now that the AFGE is pressuring Congress to open the government. 

“It has a lot of impact,” Democratic Whip Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois told reporters. “They’ve been our friends” – friends they need to win elections. 

Democrats have a tough election slate, redistricting aside. 

In 2026, as the map currently stands, the GOP only needs to win two of their eight toss-up races to keep the majority in the House. Democrats would have to retain all nine of their toss-ups and flip seven of eight GOP-held toss-ups to win the House, according to an analysis by the Cook Political Report. 

The Senate, where the current shutdown fight is being waged, is no easier for liberals. 

Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff looks to be beatable in Georgia, while Michigan’s open seat looks tight too, according to Cook. Trump won both states in 2024. 

New Hampshire and Minnesota have open seats, and while both are usually reliably Democrat, Cook rates the Granite state as just “leaning” toward the liberals, while Minnesota looks “likely” for the Democrats. 

With tight Senate races in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, the AFGE’s call to end the shutdown could hit Democrats hard if liberal leaders ignore union demands to reopen the government. Some of AFGE’s largest locals sit squarely in those states. 

Seven more votes are all the GOP needs for the supermajority that would prevent the government from shutdown threats, even as it proposes to make government much smaller. 

With possible defections from Democrats, even a two- or three-seat trickle to Republicans in the 2026 campaign would look like a “red wave” to the rest of the Senate.