Despite off-year obstacles, GOP takes 3 out of 4 contests in Florida, Wisconsin

Billed as a barometer on President Donald Trump’s second term agenda, the elections in Florida and Wisconsin gave both parties some bragging rights on Tuesday in off-year and special elections.

The GOP held off challenges in Florida congressional districts the Democrats hoped to contest, while Wisconsin elected a liberal state Supreme Court justice, but gave constitutional protection to mandatory voter ID laws.

In the short run, Trump’s gains outpace the Democrats’, as the two Florida congressional districts now have Republican members who will add to the president’s strength in the U.S. House, giving Trump a 220-213 majority in the House.

Two seats that were previously held by Democrats remain vacant due to the death of the members, pending special elections in Texas and Arizona.

Long term, the robust support Wisconsin gave when it upgraded voter ID laws to become constitutionally protected will help give a green light to one of Trump’s key voting reform measures: nationwide, mandatory voter ID.

Wisconsin voters approved the constitutional voter ID amendment with 60.3% of the vote, or 482,591 ballots in favor, while 39.7%, or 318,236 ballots were opposed, reported local WISN.  

Previously, Wisconsin passed a photo ID law for voting, but the enhancement to a constitutional amendment protects the voting security measure from interference by the courts and the Legislature. 

That’s doubly important because Wisconsin voters on Tuesday also elected a liberal to a 10-year appointment on the state’s Supreme Court, confirming the court’s pre-existing liberal majority, which even CNN admits increasingly acts as a partisan, third branch of government in the Cheddar State. With a liberal majority, Democrats have an open door for congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, which might effectively take two seats from Republicans. 

Statewide, liberal candidate Susan Crawford took 1,286,748 votes, or 55%, versus her conservative competitor, Brad Schimel, who received 1,050,816 votes, or 45% in the race for the state’s Supreme Court justice seat. 

Crawford’s victory was padded by large Democrat majorities in Milwaukee and Madison, where she received 461,449 votes to 129,670 votes for Schimel. 

The races in Florida for the open seats in Congress took an ominous turn last week when Trump pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for the post of U.N. ambassador.  

The GOP was worried that New York’s Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul would delay a special election to replace Stefanik in New York’s 21^st congressional district, making it tougher for Trump to secure a majority in U.S. House votes.     

The scuttling of the Stefanik nomination was seen as a tacit admission that perhaps one of the two congressional seats, which became open in the wake of presidential cabinet nominations for the previous members, might be in danger in Tuesday’s special election.  

“She is phenomenal, number one. She is a friend of mine. … But she’s very popular in her district. And I didn’t want to take a chance,” Trump told reporters from the Oval Office on Friday about Stefanik remaining in the House. “We have a slim margin. We don’t want to take any chances. We don’t want to experiment.” 

But in the end, both GOP candidates in Florida cruised to victory, despite the off-year obstacles. 

In Florida’s 1^st congressional district, Republican Jimmy Patronis, who serves as Florida’s chief financial officer, won 97,335 votes, or 57% of the vote, versus Democrat challenger Gay Valimont, who received 72,304 votes, or 42% of the vote.  

Patronis replaces former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned after being nominated by Trump for attorney general, a nomination that Gaetz later declined.  

In Florida’s 6^th district, Republican Randy Fine also won 57% of the vote, or 110,764 votes, against Democrat Josh Weil, who secured 43% of the vote, or 83,485 votes.  

In the 6^th, the candidates were vying to replace current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who resigned from the U.S. House when he was confirmed to the defense post by the U.S. Senate.  

In both districts, turnout was light compared to the general election, a common factor in special elections, which sometimes allow opposition parties to successfully challenge parties with big majorities inside the voting districts. 

In the 2024 general election, both the 1^st and the 6^th congressional districts in Florida saw over 410,000 voters participate, while the 2025 special election saw just 168,743 and 195,475 voters turn out in each district respectively.     

Just three days ago, Newsweek and other legacy media said Trump’s GOP majority in the U.S. House could be imperiled over the special election.  

But as the election results show, that was never true.  

Trump’s concern was more that the Republican party has a fractious caucus with independent members such as Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Rep. Chip Roy of Texas and Victoria Spartz of Indiana.  

Known as “fiscal hawks,” these members often won’t compromise on some tactical issues like the debt and the budget, giving Trump just one or two vote victories on legislation passed in the House.