Despite Trump endorsement Johnson faces thin margin in House Speaker race

Even with the enthusiastic endorsement of President-elect Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a razor thin margin of error in the vote for House Speaker this week.

A long battle over the leadership in the House could imperil the strong impetus for reform that came along with Trump’s stunning November victory, say analysts and insiders.

In a post on Trump’s TruthSocial, the president-elect said Johnson “has my Complete & Total Endorsement,” for the position.

The incoming president said the GOP has too much work to do reforming government to waste it on infighting over leadership positions.   

Trump highlighted the large money advantage Democrats had in the last general election campaign, blasting liberals for “having wasted” the money on frivolous spending such as celebrity appearances by Beyonce, Oprah and Rev. Al Sharpton.  

“LETS NOT BLOW THIS GREAT OPPORTUNITY WHICH WE HAVE BEEN GIVEN,” Trump added in his post. “The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN.” 

CNN reports that the magic number to get a House Speaker elected is 218 votes, but the cable news network’s math might be faulty.  

In the upcoming session of Congress, Republicans will have just a four-seat majority, 219-215. But in any event, the Speaker’s election usually requires “a majority of Members-elect”, rather than just a simple plurality of votes or majority of members present.  

That means that Johnson might need to receive as few as 217 votes to be elected to the Speakership because one seat remains vacant following the resignation of Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida.  

The special election to replace Gaetz will not occur until April, so currently there is no member-elect for that district, leaving the House with 434 members-elect instead of the normal 435. 

In a few instances the House has approved selection of the Speaker by a plurality of votes, but the election would need to be ratified by a majority vote, according to A Guide to the Rules, Precedents and Procedures of the House, published by the government’s General Publishing Office.  

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Kentucky, has already said that while he supports Trump’s agenda, he will not be voting for Johnson for Speaker.  

“I respect and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan,” Massie said on X. “We’ve seen Johnson partner with the Democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize spying on Americans, and blow the budget.”  

One other possible defector, Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Indiana, a close ally of Massie’s, said she isn’t committed to Johnson yet.  

In a statement on the Trump endorsement, Spartz said she wants some reforms to how Congress operates in budget matters.   

She said she wants a House Speaker candidate who will change the way spending authorizations happen, make offsets in spending to account for when the budget increases in other programs and have audits of spending.  

Spartz said the U.S. Constitution authorizes Congress to oversee all matters relating to the budget and taxes and she wants the future speaker to allow Congress to exercise that authority. 

“Congress has abandoned its constitutional duty to the American people to properly oversee the spending of their hard-earned money paid as taxes,” she said. “Our next speaker must show courageous leadership to get our country back on track.”  

Spartz later added in another X post: “I understand why President Trump is endorsing Speaker Johnson as he did Speaker Ryan, which is definitely important. However, we still need to get assurances that @SpeakerJohnson won’t sell us out to the swamp.”  

Spartz was likely referring to the 1500-page budget authorization that was rolled out by Johnson in December before the Christmas recess. Not only was the budget bill given little time for Congress to read, critics said it authorized additional pork-barrel spending.   

Just a defection by Massie alone could bring the votes for Johnson to only 218. 

For Trump, a long-drawn-out battle over leadership in the House could mean squandering the momentum created by his comeback presidential victory in an election that also saw the GOP retain its House majority and capture the U.S. Senate.