‘Flood’ of American ‘refugees’ to Canada will be a trickle

A Canadian immigration lawyer has set up a website to exploit the apparent interest American liberals have in fleeing the U.S. after last week’s presidential election of Donald Trump.

“Tired of Trump? Thinking about Canada? We can help,” says the site, calling would-be American immigrants to Canada “Trumpugees.”

The site mentions escaping “the political climate shaped by the Trump presidency, seeking universal healthcare, or yearning for a more inclusive society” as the top reasons for Americans to consider moving to the Great White North.

Canadian immigration lawyer Ryan Rosenberg, who set up the site, told The National Post that his inspiration was a similar exodus-to-be of Americans who said they’d leave the U.S. when then-President George W. Bush, whom liberals also called Hitler – was reelected in 2004.

But like a lot of lived memories, that one is greatly exaggerated.

The numbers of U.S. citizens who fled to Canada at that time were mainly made up of 200-300 Iraqi War deserters, most of whom were eventually deported back to the U.S. to face prosecution. 

In fact, the numbers of Americans who live abroad are so statistically insignificant that estimates are unreliable. The Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates there are about 3 million overseas American voters, including American service members.  

But because leaving the U.S. doesn’t relieve people originating from America of their obligation to file taxes, the IRS does occasionally study the topic. The last study, completed in 2016, estimated that there were 480,000 U.S. taxpayers living abroad who claimed foreign income. 

A Newfoundland attorney interviewed by the Post said she got five inquiries about immigration to Canada this week by “word-of-mouth,” compared to just one inquiry the week before.  

One partner at a large Toronto law firm who asked not to be named told The Lion he received “a few inquiries from some individuals following the election results.”  

But of the eight Canadian immigration attorneys polled by The Lion, only two would go on the record, which hardly indicates a flood of interest. 

“We are a very small firm and have had about 10 inquiries in 1 week,” immigration lawyer Betsy Kane at Capelle Kane in Ottawa told The Lion.  

Kane said other members of the Canadian bar are receiving a similar amount of interest.  

But she added this qualification: “Many are from those with ties to Canada and looking to assert their right to Canadian citizenship – if possible.”  

These are cases where family or economic ties to Canada give someone a claim to Canadian residency.  

The reality of immigration is a lot different than the easy-to-use Canadian lawyers’ website for “Trump refugees.”  

But the few interested parties can forget immigrating to Canada as a “refugee” over the election results anyway. 

Under Canadian laws, refugees come from a very narrowly defined set of countries and circumstances. One of the disqualifying factors is entry to “Canada from the US along the land border,” according to a Canadian government website on immigration.   

In fact, the U.S. is designated a “safe third country,” ineligible to send refugees to Canada, and that designation is unlikely to change just because of the election of a president.   

To stay in Canada permanently, one has to apply for residency either by demonstrating a labor skill in high demand, or by starting up a business, states the Canadian government immigration website. 

In either case, it costs money.  

If you are designated as working in a labor field that has a shortage of workers, you need from $12,000 to $24,000 (USD) in the bank to settle in Canada, depending on the size of your family.  

If you are starting up a new company, you need to have $54,000 to $143,000 (USD) in venture capital, depending on the source of the funds, according to the Canadian government.  

Then there is the problem of paying much higher tax rates. 

The Canadian website The Hub analyzed taxes using data compiled from the Government of Canada and the U.S. Tax Foundation.  

It found that starting at $108,000 USD of income, Canadians pay a higher marginal tax rate than their U.S. brethren. In Quebec, for example, the tax rate is 53.3% versus a 33.3% tax rate for the highest U.S. taxing state, California 

One must have an income exceeding $200,000 USD to find comparable tax rates in the highest U.S. taxing states, such as Oregon (41.9%), Minnesota (41.8%), and California (41.3%), said The Hub.  

The likelihood that U.S. workers struggling to make ends meet will suddenly decide to pay an additional 10% of their income in taxes to live in winter 9 months of the year is likely bleak – assuming they can find a legitimate way to immigrate to Canada and pay an attorney to do so.  

The result, instead of being a flood of immigration to Canada, will likely be just a trickle.