German elections cement Europe’s move to the ‘center’ on immigration, security, economics

Conservative groups won majorities in Germany’s parliamentary elections held over the weekend, signaling a continued rightward political shift toward the center in the European electorate.

But after the victory, the two leading conservative parties are not expected to form a coalition. Instead, the leading conservative party is expected to form a government with the current ruling liberal party, which just lost nearly 4 million votes from its previous total of 50 million cast, according to DW.com.  

Still, President Donald Trump hailed the victories as a triumph for common sense policies, especially on immigration and energy. 

Trump said that German voters were tired of unchecked immigration and green energy policies, which have combined to create an economic crisis in Germany.  

“This is a great day for Germany, and for the United States of America under the leadership of a gentleman named Donald J. Trump,” said Trump on social media. “Congratulations to all — many more victories to follow!!!” 

Conservatives from the alliance made up of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), known as the Conservative Party, took 208 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag elections, according to results published by the Associated Press.   

Coming in second was the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a conservative party that focuses on traditional values, free markets and reduced immigration. AfD secured 152 seats or 21% of the vote, a gain of double its previous total, said DW.com.   

AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla told supporters, “We have achieved something historic today,” reported the Los Angeles Times. “We have gained 100%. We are now the political center, and we have left the fringes behind us.” 

The ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) came in third with 120 seats, followed by the Green Party with 85 seats.  

The Conservative Party is expected to reach out to the SPD to try and form a government under Germany’s parliamentary system, giving the cold shoulder to the upstart AfD, said the AP.  

In the meantime, the SPD’s current Chancellor Olaf Scholz will continue with a caretaker government until a new coalition is formed.  

The Conservative Party has said the positions of the AfD on closing the borders and deporting immigrants makes it “far right” and has styled the Conservative Party as a “firewall” against it. 

The AfD said that they are open to coalition talks, reported Reuters.  

Reuters said that producing a coalition from the fractured Conservative Party and the SPD will be difficult.  

“The bid for an alliance with the SPD comes after a bruising campaign that highlighted deep policy divisions, in particular over migration,” writes Reuters. “The SPD, smarting from its worst post-war result, may set a high price for any deal.”  

That leaves the likely Conservative Party leader, Friedrich Merz, attempting to form a coalition with the SPD – a party that just suffered a historic defeat at the polls. 

And even if a Conservative Party/SPD coalition is formed, the alliance would control only 328 votes of the 316 required to keep the coalition going, a very narrow majority between allies with serious policy differences. 

Strategists at Deutsche Bank said the election confirmed an anti-establishment trend as Germany suffers from a soft economy and loose immigration policies. 

They noted that without AfD’s participation, the coalition lacks the necessary supermajority that’s needed for fiscal vote, known as debt brake reform, that would allow increased deficit spending, a key to Germany’s defense commitment to Ukraine and to NATO.  

“The result marks the lowest ever vote share for the two major parties, even as the turnout (82.5%) was the highest since at least 1990. And it leaves the centrist parties short of a 2/3rds constitutional majority … at just under 66% of seats. That means any debt brake reform, including for defence spending, would require support from one of the fringe parties. This may not be impossible, but it would require significant political compromises,” Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, according to CNBC. 

The election comes at a critical time for Germany, as the U.S. attempts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia that could impact Germany’s security. 

Trump congratulated Germany’s would-be leader, Friedrich Merz, even as the soon-to-be German chancellor has tried to distance himself from Trump. 

“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” Merz said on the eve of voting.