How a shaken OPEC may reshape global energy – and place the ‘world’s lifeblood’ under US control

In a move analysts say could reshape the global energy order, The United Arab Emirates left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance on Friday.

The UAE departed OPEC as President Donald Trump is pushing for American energy dominance. The U.S. is one of the world’s leading oil producers and exporters.

As one of the top OPEC producers, the UAE’s departure will weaken the group’s power over global oil prices and may accelerate a shift to market-driven output, several analysts told The Lion.

Founded in 1960 to “secure” oil prices, OPEC claims it formed to keep costs fair and stable, while critics assert it functions as a cartel that keeps prices elevated.

Senior Fellow at the Energy and Environment Legal Institute Steve Milloy told The Lion that “Trump has stumbled upon the key to getting a grip on the global economy and our enemies – and this control of the world’s lifeblood, oil and gas.”

Milloy says Trump “destroyed OPEC, which has tortured the U.S. for more than 50 years with its dominance over the global price of oil. From his policy of U.S. energy dominance to his seizure of Venezuela’s oil industry to his blockading of Iran, OPEC is done as the determinative force of the global price of oil and gas.”

Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said Monday at a conference in Dubai that the UAE left on “good terms” and owes partners investing in the UAE the ability “to ⁠produce what the world requires without restrictions with collaboration with all other producers,” according to Reuters.

Notably, Iran – a founding member of OPEC – reportedly fired missiles and drones at the UAE on Monday, the first such attack since the April 8 ceasefire, according to UAE officials.

U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday the ceasefire was not over, and that he was anticipating “churn” as the U.S. began the initiative known as Project Freedom to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

As analysts anticipate radical change to energy markets, Trump has encouraged domestic oil and gas drilling, moved to revive Venezuela’s energy industry and bucked against Iranian, Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere. Trump commended the UAE’s decision on April 29.

David Blackmon, a 40-year veteran of the oil and gas industry who now writes on the energy sector, said he anticipates that OPEC and OPEC+ will have a “hard time holding together” once the Strait of Hormuz blockage is resolved.

“This whole structure that we’ve all gotten used to with these cartels and how the energy markets work is going to undergo radical change within the next couple of years,” Blackmon continued.

Without OPEC-imposed quotas, the UAE can increase output based on demand, said Senior Research Associate Nicole Huyer at The Heritage Foundation’s Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies.

“As the UAE’s exit and America’s surge in oil and natural gas production erodes OPEC’s market power, this shift reduces the economic advantages member nations once gained from participating in the cartel,” Huyer said. “This is a good development for consumers and energy abundance. It weakens OPEC’s ability to control production and influence prices, aligns with a market-based energy approach and strengthens UAE-U.S. ties.”

Jason Isaac, CEO of the American Energy Institute, emphasized that the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC signals “growing fractures” within the cartel.

“It reflects a recognition that national economic interests, particularly the desire to expand production and capture market share, are increasingly at odds with coordinated output restrictions,” Isaac said. “In the long run, it is another reminder that reliable, affordable energy is best delivered by countries willing to produce it, not by committees trying to ration it.”

While free market advocates are optimistic about the UAE’s exit, energy costs and shortages remain at the top of mind for oil and gas industry experts as supply chain shortages drag on.

Though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes Project Freedom will make the world “awash in oil,” and the UAE is expected to increase production outside OPEC, Blackmon said that energy markets are more complex and that reversing recent disruptions will take time.