Iran deadline looms as gas prices tick up in US, ‘energy lockdown’ speculation swirls elsewhere

As President Donald Trump’s Tuesday night deadline for Iran looms, gas prices continue to rise across the U.S. and American allies scramble to adapt to dwindling fuel supplies.

Since Operation Epic Fury began on Feb. 28, Iran disrupted global supply chains by effectively blocking the chokepoint known as the Strait of Hormuz.

The average national gas price hit $4 for the first time since 2022 on March 31 and now stands at $4.14, according to AAA data. European officials are suggesting limiting travel as fuel prices skyrocket and supplies dwindle, while Southeast Asian countries scramble to conserve energy.

Jet fuel costs jumped by 95% since the conflict began, according to data from the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index. Pressure from rising fuel costs has led some airlines such as Delta to raise fees on checked bags and shippers such as UPS to implement fuel surcharges.

Some analysts are also warning that COVID-19-style “energy lockdowns” may be on the horizon in some countries while the International Energy Agency advises working from home to limit oil use from commuting.

“Climate activists are treating the Iran war as though it’s a version of the Green New Deal. They see any negative energy impacts as an opportunity to literally do the exact same things they were proposing for the Green New Deal, for net zero, and COVID, with stay-at-home orders,” Marc Morano, author and publisher of ClimateDepot.com, told The Lion in a statement.

GasBuddy’s Head of Petroleum Analysis Patrick De Haan warned Tuesday that even the more insulated midwestern states face impending cost shocks.

“We’ll likely soon see no states with diesel below $5/gal,” De Haan wrote on X, adding that “[I] just can’t underscore the negative impact on the sudden surge in fuel prices is absolutely hurting Americans – and some refiners.”

David Blackmon, an energy and policy writer who spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, wrote Tuesday that “we have probably seen the end of sub-$3.00 gas in the United States. Not just for a few weeks or months.” Blackmon referenced damage to Middle East oil infrastructure that will take time to repair, as well as depleted national petroleum reserves that will “lead to higher volatility on crude oil prices.”

Trump has given Iran a deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday to reach a deal and open the Strait, though The Wall Street Journal reported Iranian officials ceased peace talks after Trump wrote that “a whole civilization will die tonight. … I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

In response to whether Iran officials severed diplomatic discussions with the U.S., White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told The Lion in a statement that “the Iranian regime has until 8PM Eastern Time to meet the moment and make a deal with the United States. Only the President knows where things stand and what he will do.”

Photo credit: The White House