Op-ed: Trump’s ongoing economic triumph shows economists, Obama wrong

Inflation data has arrived better than expected, as economists continue to poorly forecast the resilient U.S. economy under President Donald Trump – an economy that apparently needs no stimulus.

Month after month, Trump proves doubters wrong, including former President Barack Obama, as the economy powers to numbers not seen since the early 2000s.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the consumer price index rose 0.3% in September, lower than economists’ consensus forecast of an annual rate of 3.1%.

The less volatile core number, which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.2% or half the 0.4% forecast by economists. 

The index was adversely affected by gasoline prices because of regulatory pressures from California, which is pushing national energy costs higher. 

“The index for gasoline rose 4.1 percent in September and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase, as the index for energy rose 1.5 percent over the month,” the BLS release said. 

The gas price surge reflects the hostile environment California’s Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom has created for refineries on the West Coast, which has conjured a self-inflicted energy crisis in the Golden State. 

“The state runs cap-and-trade for carbon and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), both of which add cost at the wholesale level,” the Autoblog reports. “California also uses its own cleaner gasoline blend. Few refineries outside the region make it, so emergency supply options stay thin. Then you add one of the highest state fuel tax and fee loads in the country.” 

The West Coast region drives about 20% of the CPI’s energy number, according to BLS methodology, so when gas pops $0.30 there, the rest of the nation feels it, even if Newsom won’t admit it. 

Food prices went up more modestly, an increase of 0.2% over the month. 

The numbers again belie mainstream and liberal economists’ arguments that tariffs and deportations of illegal immigrants would create massive inflation. 

Before the summer, Goldman Sachs forecast core inflation would hit 6.3% by mid-year with consumer prices up 3.7%, CNN noted in June. 

The result has been a downward spiral in consumer expectations for the future, which so far has failed to keep pace with the improving economy. 

The University of Michigan (UM) index of consumer expectations is down over 32% from last year at this time, at 50.3 compared to the previous reading of 74.1, according to its most recent release. 

Much of the gloom has stemmed from predictions of inflation and economic slowdown that have failed to materialize so far. 

“This month’s increase in long-run inflation expectations was driven primarily by independents and Republicans,” said UM’s Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “Inflation uncertainty – as measured by the interquartile range of expectations – ticked up for both [long run and short run] time horizons this month.” 

The inflation data forecasting misses show how difficult it’s been for mainstream economists, who have been indoctrinated in a generation or more of faulty free-trade, free-immigration ideology, to divorce their models from the liberal mantras. 

The economy, which liberals said would sputter, has instead gained steam. 

Second quarter GDP growth came in at 3.8%, well above the 1.8% consensus forecasted, which the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee shared in mid-June. 

While the print for GDP in the Q3 isn’t official, a GDP Nowcast by the Atlanta Fed – which has been very reliable – shows GDP came in at 3.8% and is running slightly hotter at 3.9% for Q4. 

Previously, Blue Chip economic forecasts were predicting around 2% and 2.5% GDP growth for Q3 and Q4, respectively. 

If the trend holds through Q4, it will mark the best non-COVID economic growth over a nine-month period since Q4 2003 through Q2 2004. 

The key to such high growth? What economists labeled “weaknesses” have turned out to be strengths of the Trump economy: tariffs on imports and consumer spending. 

“Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment,” said the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

As the BEA notes, imports subtract GDP, so driving down imports adds to the economic growth of the nation, the major rationale behind Trump tariff policy. 

And however discouraged consumers may be about the future, they are spending money now, the BEA notes. 

That’s in part because while the employment report allows the establishment media to shout doom and gloom, a closer inspection shows the job market is remarkably robust. 

From August 2024 to August 2025, native-born Americans have gained 2.8 million jobs year over year, while foreign-born workers have lost 822,000 jobs over the same period, according to the BLS. 

Xenophobia? 

Hardly. Under Trump, foreign-born unemployment ticked up 0.1%, while native-born went up twice that during the same period. 

This means unemployment is most likely being driven by 2 million illegal immigrants who self-deported in the last 250 days. 

The results are a big win for America and a big loss for liberal, mainstream economics. 

Progressives stretching back to Obama have said such economic growth couldn’t be done, lacking generous stimulus, while imposing tariffs, cutting taxes and deporting illegals, all at the same time. 

“What magic wand do you have?” Obama asked about Trump’s economic plans in 2016 – plans that are fully matured now. 

Trump didn’t need a magic wand, as the U.S. already had one that simply needed to be waved by a willing maestro: the economy.

Photo credit: The White House