Report: Massachusetts school enrollment declines projected through 2030

(The Center Square) – A new study of public-school enrollment changes reveals that Massachusetts could have a decline over the next several years.

Pioneer Institute on Tuesday released Enrollment in Massachusetts Public Schools, COVID, and Beyond. It illustrates how public-school enrollments were stable until the COVID-19 pandemic, and shutdowns changed the education landscape.

According to a release, the study cites the U.S. Department of Education’s projections that declines in public school enrollment could have a lasting effect through 2030.

“COVID triggered a significant enrollment drop, and most of those students haven’t returned to public schools,” report author Dr. Ken Ardon said in a statement. “Declines are likely to continue through the current decade.”

According to the executive summary in the report, enrollment in all grades in public schools in the state was “extremely stable” from 2010 through 2019. The annual changes in enrollment encompassed less than 2,000 students, with enrollment peaking at 942,000 and a floor of 935,000. The difference is less than 1%.

However, the report also details how vulnerable school districts should be aware of those numbers, and serve as a warning, as those districts battle financial, staffing, and facility issues that could stem from a drop in enrollments at those schools.

In reports in 2008 and 2012, Pioneer showed public-school enrollments had dropped by 35,000 students, roughly 0.5% per year, with the most significant drops coming in the western portions of the state and in Cape Cod.

However, the report shows that local changes were hidden by the stability of the overall enrollment numbers. Sixty-eight cities and towns lost more than one-fifth of students while 33 cities and towns had enrollments rise by more than 10%. Those declines took part in the central and western portions of the state.

COVID-19’s arrival in the winter of 2020, according to the report, disrupted those trends as enrollments fell 2.8% across the country and 3.3% in Massachusetts. Elementary schools saw steep drops, especially in prekindergarten and kindergarten.

According to the report, it remains to be seen why certain districts witnessed more significant enrollment declines during the pandemic. However, enrollments of white students fell more, but the location and size of municipalities didn’t illustrate “how many students left.”

The report doesn’t indicate where those students traversed, yet “incomplete evidence” shows homeschooling may have been a destination, not private schools.

According to the report, enrollment is likely to continue to fall even as the impacts of COVID-19 draw to a close. The National Center for Education Statistics estimates Massachusetts will have an enrollment decline by 2030 of 40,000 students, or 4.5%. Most of that is projected after 2025.

Western Massachusetts, according to the report, may have the most significant decline in enrollments according to birthrate data. Births also fell across the state in 2020, which should have an impact after 2025.