Russia-Ukraine losses could hit 2 million by spring

A security think tank is painting a grim picture of the war between Russia and Ukraine, warning casualties could reach as high as 2 million by this spring if a peace deal isn’t in place.

The report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described a grinding conflict defined by shallow gains despite extreme casualties. 

The report noted Russian forces advanced at an average rate of just 70 meters per day, while combined casualties have reached 1.8 million so far. 

“This is slower than the most brutal offensive campaigns over the last century, including the notoriously bloody Battle of the Somme during World War I,” CSIS said.  

The findings echo warnings delivered days earlier by President Donald Trump during his address to global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he said the scale of losses was “staggering” and difficult for the public to comprehend. 

The CSIS analysis estimated Russian casualties alone are 1.2 million killed, wounded or missing since the invasion began in February 2022. 

The study characterizes the war as a prolonged contest of endurance rather than maneuver, firepower or decisive breakthrough. 

Russia is relying on its advantage in the numbers of males they have fit for military service in their population versus Ukraine. 

Russia has about 3.7 times the military population of Ukraine, according to Russia Matters, a project run by Harvard Kennedy School. 

“Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,” CSIS noted.  

These assessments closely track comments Trump made in Davos, where he described the conflict as a “bloodbath” and warned monthly losses were reaching levels rarely seen outside the world wars. 

Trump cited figures of roughly 25,000 to 31,000 soldiers killed per month, telling the audience that the numbers were so high “people cannot believe it.” 

He warned the war increasingly resembled industrial-era mass attrition rather than modern warfare built around precision weapons and limited objectives. 

Trump framed his concern in explicitly human terms, emphasizing the cost to families and communities rather than strategic abstractions. 

“These are souls. These are young people,” he said, describing parents sending children to war only to receive news weeks later that they had been killed. 

Trump said stopping the killing was his primary motivation for pushing negotiations, not geopolitical advantage or alliance politics. 

The CSIS report reinforces Trump’s calls for negotiations by highlighting how little strategic return either side is gaining from continued fighting. 

Russian forces, despite massive manpower commitments and sustained artillery use, have failed to achieve decisive operational success since early 2024, CSIS said. 

Ukraine, meanwhile, faces mounting strain from manpower shortages and sustained casualties. 

The report noted neither side appears capable of delivering a clear battlefield victory under current conditions. 

The study said Russia’s losses represent the highest sustained casualty levels suffered by a major power since World War II. 

Economically, the report concluded the war has imposed long-term structural damage on Russia, noting 2025 has been the toughest year yet. 

“In 2025, Russian manufacturing declined at its fastest rate since March 2022, with contractions in output and new orders, a rising labor shortage, and a decrease in input buying,” CSIS said.  

Peace on the horizon? 

Peace negotiations continued over the weekend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that a U.S. document outlining security guarantees for Ukraine has been finalized and that Kyiv is now waiting to schedule its signing, according to Reuters. 

Ukraine has insisted on those security guarantees as a condition of negotiating with Russia. As a part of any successful negotiation, Zelenskyy will likely have to cede a portion of Ukrainian territory. 

At Davos, Trump criticized NATO allies for relying on American resources while failing to bring the conflict to an end. 

He argued geography alone should limit U.S. exposure to a war being fought thousands of miles from American shores. 

“How many people they’ve lost? They don’t want to talk about it,” Trump said. “Ukraine and Russia lost just tremendous amounts. And I’m dealing with President Putin, and he wants to make a deal. I believe I’m dealing with President Zelenskyy, and I think he wants to make a deal.” 

Taken together, the CSIS report and Trump’s comments highlight a growing consensus across ideological lines that the Ukraine war has entered a stage defined not by rapid advances or strategic surprise, but by relentless casualties. 

The security think tank, however, says the U.S. and Europe have failed to pressure Russian president Vladimir Putin effectively to make peace realistic. 

“If Moscow continues to drag its feet on peace talks, the United States and Europe should provide more advanced and longer-range weapons, mines, engineering capabilities, and other matériel to Ukraine,” the report concluded.