School choice states poised to add seats in Congress in 2030, report finds

States with universal school choice programs could pick up 11 seats in Congress if current population trends continue, a new report finds.

The American Redistricting Project predicts Florida and Texas will pick up four seats each when congressional districts are redrawn following the 2030 Census. Three other states, Arizona, Utah and Idaho, would gain one seat each.

The predictions are based on 2024 population estimates, which could change between now and April 2030.

Florida is the nation’s largest school choice state, with more than 500,000 students participating, and Texas just passed the largest ever day-one school choice program, which is expected to serve 100,000 students in its first year. 

In total, 18 states have passed universal school choice. 

The states that could lose the most congressional seats – California (3) and New York (2) – have no school choice programs. They are also deep blue, or under solid control of Democrats, who receive substantial support from teachers’ unions and typically oppose school choice. 

Six blue or purple states would also lose one seat each if current population trends continue: Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. 

Wisconsin has about 90,000 students using school choice and Pennsylvania has two small programs that advocates are trying to expand, but none of the states have universal school choice. 

The population trend appears to favor states with educational freedom – and red states in general. States with growing populations lean Republican (Arizona has a Democrat governor), while the declining states lean or are solidly Democrat. 

School choice evangelist Corey DeAngelis says the report is a win for “states that respect parents’ right to direct the upbringing of their children.” 

“American families want to vote with their feet to send their children to schools that align with their values,” he told The Lion by email. “Red states are engaging in friendly competition to empower families with education freedom. 

“Democrats are doubling down on trying to dumb down America’s children. Voters will keep flocking to states that trust them to raise their own children.” 

A separate analysis found blue states overspend on public education when test scores are compared across the states. That report, and the link between population gain or loss and school choice, challenges the rhetoric that Democrats – and not Republicans – are the party of education. 

“Democrat politicians need to start listening to their constituents as opposed to special interests if they want this trend to change,” DeAngelis says. “They’re on the wrong side of history.”