Shocking: Half of students might be educated outside public schools by 2030, report says 

Half of American children could be educated outside of public schools by 2030. 

That’s according to a stunning report from the Learning Counsel, a research institute in Benton, Arkansas. 

The report, released this summer, sees public schools losing 16 million students over the next five years. That would be a decrease from nearly 49 million this year to 33 million in 2029-30, which would equal half the U.S. K-12 students for that year. 

Over the same period, homeschooling is expected to nearly double from about 11 million students today to 20 million in 2030. The trend of more parents educating their children has continued even after COVID-19. 

“Homeschooling has been rising by 65% every year, only moderately down from the 85% growth during the pandemic years,” the report says. 

The educational shift, which the report calls a “convergence,” stems from the rise of school choice in states across the U.S., a growing sense of parental empowerment, the inflexibility of the public school system and other factors, including politics. 

“Teachers unions and many policies in schools have come down squarely on only one side of the political scene for years, and only in recent months has America been seeing state [governors] issuing surprising counter moves, largely in the Midwest and South,” the report says. “With so many states adopting choice legislation and issuing vouchers, the biggest shift year is expected to be 2025-2026 as awareness expands amongst more parents and students. 

“Trends tend to accelerate when they reach a certain critical mass – and that tipping point is due to arrive well within the next three years,” it adds. 

Economics is also driving the change. 

“State and local governments cause massive savings for themselves in the act of privatizing K12 education, saving upwards of 70% or more on all costs while retaining the same income from taxation,” the report says. “That is billions of dollars for most states annually that is becoming increasingly difficult to argue against as traditional public schools continue to fail in their mission of educating the American public as seen on abysmal literacy and math scores from so much of the population. Negative sentiment has reached a fevered pitch.” 

Public schools are facing building closures and a teacher shortage, and more teachers are considering leaving the classroom. Some of them are leaving to homeschool or start microschools. 

The Learning Counsel, which also has a technology wing that provides consulting services, recommends public schools make certain changes to stay relevant. These include offering “small, walkable educational settings with adult oversight,” the ability to take classes both in-person and online, and a switch to pace-based learning. 

Interestingly, many of these dynamics are already present in microschools, many of which classify themselves as homeschools. Some also fit in the category of hybrid schools. 

The report recognizes the need of the “Alpha Generation” for “highly flexible and personalized arrangements in all things,” including education. It’s possible through AI, but teachers’ unions oppose most things that would replace teachers as they strive to preserve jobs. 

The report’s authors considered pushback from unions and groups that oppose changes in education, but believe simple economics will cause these shifts to prevail. 

And once public schools are at half the school-age population, it predicts further shift toward a “privatized-but-regulated industry, much like what has already happened with most of the energy industry and hospitals that were once public works. 

“Learning Counsel predicts districts will go through several rounds of consolidations before attempting a more learning-consumer restructure including retail-like-outlet study centers dotting neighborhoods to satisfy demands of nearness rather than the trend in consolidation that makes schools more distant and aggregated,” it says.  

Although the biggest gains will be in homeschooling, the lines between public and home schooling may start to blur as students everywhere take advantage of online learning opportunities that may be public or private, the report says. 

Additionally, it expects more regulations on the use of state funds to pay for private schooling, including with school choice programs, which could impact their use. 

Therefore, “none of the sector numbers, therefore, are absolute in definition because of the shift in technologies supporting remote education, policy and funding changes,” the report notes.

(Images taken from Learning Counsel report)