Trump pushes closer to Christmas peace in Ukraine as estimated 27,000 die monthly

Ukraine and Russia are closer than ever to a peace agreement after weeks of negotiations in Berlin, President Donald Trump told a press conference Monday.

Noting 27,000 military casualties in the war in Ukraine last month, Trump said, “I think we are closer now than we have been ever. And we’ll see what we can do. We want to save a lot of lives.”

Leaders from the U.S., Ukraine and Europe spent much of this week in Berlin seeking to narrow differences, especially regarding U.S. guarantees of Ukrainian security.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “there is a chance for a real peace process between Russia and Ukraine,” according to YnetNews.

“This is the best chance since the beginning of the war,” Merz added. “Without U.S. President Donald Trump, we would not have reached the positive dynamics of the last few hours.”

Both Merz and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed a truce by Christmas.

“Many things, probably in this sense, depend on Russia’s political will,” Zelenskyy said.

Trump described the conversations as “very long and very good,” and said both sides were working to bring negotiators “on the same page.”

He stressed while progress was evident, the process was fragile and far from certain.

U.S. envoys in Berlin offered to provide security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, a proposal U.S. officials characterized as an unprecedented level of commitment to Ukraine’s future security, Reuters reported.

Those security assurances would commit the U.S. and NATO to measures including monitoring and mediation meant to deter renewed aggression by Russia and others toward Ukraine. The proposed guarantees are described as conditional and time limited, and officials warned they would require further approvals, including from the U.S. Senate.

In return for the security guarantees, Ukraine agreed to drop suggestions of joining the NATO alliance outright, a sticking point for Russia and one of the main causes of the conflict.

European leaders welcomed the shift toward explicit U.S. security commitments and used the Berlin platform to call for sustained, reinforced support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

A joint statement from leaders of Germany, France, Italy and other EU countries endorsed a European-led multinational force on the ground in Ukraine, aimed at helping build up Ukrainian armed forces, secure Ukrainian airspace and maritime zones, and maintaining peace.

“Any deal should protect the long-term security and unity of the Euro-Atlantic and the role of NATO in providing robust deterrence,” the statement said.

The EU statement included not only military support but also investment in Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic future, “making major resources available for recovery and reconstruction, mutually beneficial trade agreements.”

Despite diplomatic activity, fighting is still fierce. Recent battlefield assessments indicate Russian forces remain capable of large-scale attacks.

Both sides continue using drones and missiles in ongoing engagements. Independent analysts tracking the offensive campaign report thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles employed in late 2025 as hostilities stretch into their fourth winter.

Ukraine has shown itself to be resilient and innovative, unleashing the first unmanned drone strike on a submarine in naval history. The strike was on a diesel-electric submarine in the Black Sea naval stronghold of Novorossiysk.

Territorial disputes remain a central sticking point in negotiations while also fueling the fighting.

U.S. officials and Ukrainian leaders said while broad agreement has been reached on many provisions, issues surrounding key conquered territory such as Donbas and other contested areas still need to be decided by Ukraine.

Media reports agree Trump’s security guarantees for Ukraine are a limited-time offer, meaning that in return for the guarantees, Ukraine will probably have to give up some territory or risk losing U.S. support.

Ukraine continues to resist territorial concessions, and Moscow has shown little willingness to alter its position. It’s unclear whether Russia will even accept the latest proposals.

The head of Britain’s spy service has accused Russia of dragging out negotiations, seeking to sow “chaos” everywhere as a part of its larger Cold War against the West.

The comments reflect tensions between the U.S. pivot to an “America First” defense policy, which decreases U.S. military assets devoted to Europe and increases such assets devoted to the Indo-Pacific region to confront China.

Trump has made it clear the blank check the U.S. wrote to defend Europe over the last seven decades is no longer available, and Europe largely has to defend itself with U.S. assistance.

The Trump peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine over the last year have been the most visible consequence of that new “America First” policy, which asks Europe to pay for its own defense and act in its own defense.