Trump sobered in expectations for Putin summit regarding Russia-Ukraine war 

The leader of the free world will meet the leader of the “axis of evil” in Alaska today at a summit aimed at ending the three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war.

The talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be their first face-to-face encounter since the 2019 G20 summit in Japan.

News of the latest peace meeting has sparked both excitement and concern, with hopes of progress tempered by worries over the cost of a peace deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has objected to being excluded from the summit, a concern Trump has acknowledged. European leaders have also expressed frustration over being left out, though some analysts point to the continent’s inability to defend itself as a main reason for the exclusion.

Trump has downplayed forecasts for the meeting’s success, unusual for a president who typically raises expectations for his initiatives.

“I think it’s going to be a good meeting, but the more important meeting will be the second meeting that we’re having,” Trump told reporters, according to Reuters. “We’re going to have a meeting with President Putin, President Zelenskiy, myself, and maybe we’ll bring some of the European leaders along. Maybe not. I don’t know that.”

Seeking a ceasefire

Trump said his first goal is to arrange a cease-fire, even as leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron oppose the talks.

Sam Greene of King’s College London argued that Europe’s reluctance to contribute proportionally to the war effort has left it sidelined. NATO’s deterrent capability has long relied on U.S. leadership and spending, he noted.

“Even as Europe builds a larger defense-industrial base and rekindles conversations about strategic autonomy, leaders from London to Warsaw remain unable to imagine a security architecture in which the US is not the fundamental pillar,” Greene said.

The U.S. president cautioned that Russia faces “very severe consequences” if it doesn’t agree to a cease-fire and admitted, “There may be no second meeting.”

Sources inside the administration told Axios that their team has realistic expectations based on previous dealings with Putin, although they are approaching the talks positively.

“Yes, the president hasn’t been happy about Putin as of late. But that’s gone. He’s optimistic,” an administration official told Axios. “We’re optimistic. But we’re not crazy. This is hard.”

Possible land swap

The central dispute for both Ukraine and Russia, even for a cease-fire, is territory. Russia wants to keep all land captured since 2022, while Ukraine demands its return. If the war ended now with no territorial changes, Russia would control about one-fifth of Ukraine.

Trump has said land swaps will likely be part of any permanent peace deal. Published reports say the U.S. may offer Russia relief from economic sanctions and some Arctic resource access if Putin agrees to a deal.

In March, Trump ordered the State and Treasury departments to prepare sanctions relief plans in case of a breakthrough, Reuters reported. While he could begin easing sanctions by executive order after a cease-fire, permanent relief would require congressional approval.

Alaska, a former Russian territory sold to the U.S. in 1867, offers both strategic and symbolic value as the meeting site. The host military base has been used to counter Russia, but now could be the site of peace. Experts note the state’s geographic and cultural proximity to Russia makes it a fitting backdrop for potential cooperation.

“If Donald Trump is trying to be the mediator of this, Alaska is the perfect place to resurrect that friendship for the sake of world peace,” said Lee Farrow, a professor at Auburn University at Montgomery.

The meeting is scheduled for 3 p.m. Eastern Time. Trump is scheduled to leave Alaska at 9:45 p.m.