Analysis: US Navy well positioned to prevent Iran blockade of Hormuz Strait

A detailed analysis of published ship movements by The Lion shows the U.S. Navy has considerable assets available to thwart an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

But the deployments signal the Trump administration is intent on deterrence and retaliation rather than the invasion of Iran, a posture that was backed up by the administration’s measured response to news of Iranian missiles fired at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday. The few Marines with the carriers near Iran are there to provide security, not an amphibious landing force.

Published reports show that at least three carrier groups are – or soon will be – within range of Iran.  

That’s three times the force assembled in 1988, the last time Iran tried to close the strait.  

During the 1988 blockade, the USS Enterprise, with just 70-80 aircraft, successfully reopened the strait, wiping out the Iranian navy’s offensive potential in a one-day strike.   

“Operation Praying Mantis was the largest of five major U.S. Navy surface actions since World War II,” according to the U.S. Navy official history of the 1988 fight with Iran. “It was the first, and so far only, time the U.S. Navy has exchanged surface-to-surface missile fire with an enemy, and it resulted in the largest warship sunk by the U.S. Navy since WWII. In the one-day operation, the U.S. Navy destroyed two Iranian surveillance platforms, sank two of their ships, and severely damaged another.” 

On station in U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which has a forward base at Al Udeid Air Base, is the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group. 

Included in a carrier strike group are the carrier, one guided-missile cruiser, two Arleigh Burke Class destroyers and one fast attack submarine to provide anti-submarine warfare capability, plus the sub’s additional Tomahawk missile strike capability.   

The Vinson will be joined shortly by the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group, which was scheduled to relieve the Vinson off station in about two months but has been moved to the Middle East early to serve alongside the current CENTCOM carrier group. 

Plans for the Nimitz to head to the Middle East started as early as January, which coincided with the new Trump administration. 

Last week it was announced the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group would head to Europe, most likely the eastern Mediterranean, which would put the group in position to lend support to the other two carrier groups, said Scripps News.  

According to the U.S. Naval Institute, both the Nimitz and the Ford groups underwent training to learn how to combat attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthis previously used drones and missiles to try to shut down the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which could be how Iran would shut down the Strait of Hormuz.  

The Bab al-Mandab Strait off of Yemen provides a pinch point just 12 miles wide between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, whereas the Strait of Hormuz provides a pinch point about 21 miles wide where marine traffic can be disrupted.  

Additionally, the U.S. has at least five missile defense destroyers in the Mediterranean, which could quickly be redeployed to support the carrier groups.  

The U.S. Navy also has two other destroyers in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, according to the U.S. Naval Institute ship tracker. 

Combined with the three carrier group destroyers, that would give the Navy 13 missile defense destroyers accessible to the Strait of Hormuz, and a total fleet facing Iran at three carrier decks capable of launching 250-270 aircraft, 13 missile defense destroyers and at least three guided missile cruisers. 

With one fast attack submarine per carrier group plus the USS Georgia, an Ohio-Class guided-missile submarine that already participated in a 30-missile salvo against nuclear sites in Iran, the combined fleet has a total of four known submarines. Together the subs can launch about 225 Tomahawk missiles. The cruisers can likely launch another 250-350 missiles.  

That’s a lot of offensive and defensive firepower deterring Iran from any serious action. 

Already traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been redirected and oil prices have begun to climb, signaling global worries about what Iran might do, even as the message from Washington seems to be clear.  

“If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran about closing the body of water used as a transit hub. He noted the damage to the global economy would be more severe to other countries than it would be to the U.S. 

“It would be, I think, a massive escalation that would have to merit a response, not just by us, but from others,” Rubio told Fox News.