First time in 50 years: Net US migration hits negative numbers in 2025 as enforcement kicks in 

Illegal immigration into the United States fell sharply in 2025, following expanded enforcement and a collapse in illegal border crossings. 

A new report from the Brookings Institution estimates net immigration has now turned negative for the first time in at least half a century. 

In its January 2026 update, Brookings estimates net immigration in 2025 ranged between -295,000 and -10,000 entries, marking the first year of net outflows since at least the early 1970s.  

Net immigration is generally estimated by subtracting departures from arrivals. 

“For 2026, we project net migration is likely to remain in negative territory,” as enforcement ramps up, the report said. 

The Brookings figures contrast sharply with the Trump administration’s own deportation figures. 

The Department of Homeland Security reported in December that more than 2.5 million illegal aliens left the U.S. in 2025 through a combination of deportations and voluntary departures. 

DHS attributes the decline to stricter border control, increased domestic enforcement and a sharp reduction in illegal entries. 

Brookings acknowledged its figures may understate the scale of the decline.  

The report notes that estimates based on the Current Population Survey, including those produced by the Center for Immigration Studies and the Pew Research Center, show a decline in the foreign-born population of roughly 2 million.  

After accounting for mortality, Brookings concedes those figures imply negative net immigration of at least 1.5 million. 

The report draws heavily on third-party datasets, including data compiled by deportationdata.org, a project run by immigration advocacy researchers. 

Brookings itself notes official government reporting gaps make precise measurement difficult, leaving analysts to rely on indirect estimates and assumptions, which Brookings fills with its own model. 

Trump officials argue the underlying trend is clear even if precise totals remain debated. 

“The Trump administration is shattering historic records with more than 2.5 million illegal aliens leaving the U.S. DHS has deported more than 605,000 illegal aliens and another 1.9 million have self-deported. Since January 20, DHS has arrested more than 595,000 illegal aliens,” said DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin. 

Publicly available border data supports the argument that illegal crossings dropped dramatically in 2025, NBC News reported. 

Arrests and encounters at the southern border fell to a fraction of levels recorded during the surge years of 2022 through 2024, reflecting fewer attempts to enter the country unlawfully, said the news network. 

Economic impact 

While Brookings presented the immigration decline as full of economic risk, particularly for labor force growth, the report’s comparisons of data from 2022 through 2024 – a period marked by COVID-19 pandemic disruptions – fall outside historical norms. 

Labor force participation and employment gains during those years reflect delayed workforce reentry and huge illegal population inflows rather than a stable population. 

Brookings argued slower immigration reduces the pace of labor force expansion and could weigh on consumer spending and GDP. 

However, current economic data does not show a corresponding slowdown in either consumer spending or GDP. 

GDP in particular has increased rapidly in 2025, The Lion previously reported.  

Consumer spending remained strong throughout 2025, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data, supporting steady economic growth across the year. 

GDP growth after the first quarter ran at or above 3% in subsequent quarters, contradicting arguments that reduced immigration has materially weakened the economy. 

Recent data point in the same direction. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model has revised its current-quarter growth estimate sharply higher, to 5.5% GDP growth, driven largely by consumer spending. 

Roughly half of projected growth is attributed to consumer spending, undercutting assertions that lower immigration has depressed household demand. 

Those numbers contrast with 4.3% growth in Q3 2025, 2.8% growth in 2024 and 2.5% in 2023. 

Within the Brookings report, the economic effects are largely modeled projections created by writers rather than observed consequences supported by data.