Hispanics flee Texas public schools, contributing to first non-pandemic enrollment slump in almost 40 years, report concludes

The Texas public education system is wrestling with a seismic shift – plunging enrollment even as the state’s population rises, according to analysts.

“Public school enrollment is falling even as Texas continues to grow,” said Carlo Castillo, a senior research analyst at Texas 2036, in a statement quoted by the Texas Tribune.

“In many parts of the state, population gains are no longer translating into public school enrollment growth. That points to a broader structural shift policymakers and district leaders will need to plan for.”

This academic year saw a withdrawal of approximately 76,000 students – 81% of whom were Hispanic, the policy research group noted.

“This is not another blip or a one-off,” concluded Bob Templeton, analyst of state education demographics, in a May 11 legislative hearing. “This is an inflection point.”

‘Single largest year-over-year reversal’

The southern border, Panhandle and urban areas reported the highest enrollment declines, according to the article.

“The 2.1% decline in Hispanic enrollment — or 61,781 students — represents ‘the single largest year-over-year reversal’ among the four major racial and ethnic groups,” journalists noted of Hispanic, white, Black and Asian attendees.

Fifty-three percent of the state’s 5.5 million students are Hispanic, with 24% white and 13% Black, the article observed.

Only the Asian population has grown over the last five years, though the rate of growth shrank from 7.2% in the 2022-23 school year to 2.9% in the 2025-26 year, according to Texas 2036.

As a result, about 100,000 fewer students will attend state public schools by the end of 2036, the group estimated – though other projections peg the number higher at almost 500,000.

A history of government takeovers

As previously reported by The Lion, the Lone Star State has experienced criticism over its public-school performance from several sectors.

This includes a government takeover of three districts – Beaumont, Connally and Lake Worth – in December, in addition to Fort Worth in October and Houston in 2023.

Meanwhile, applications for Education Freedom Accounts (EFA) began earlier this year, with scholarships to be given out to as many as 100,000 students this fall.

“There’s a lot of competition out there for parents to make a decision about where they want to put their children,” said Superintendent Ángel Rivera of the Mesquite Independent School District. “Back in the day, it was your local school. Now, there are options.”