Money, language and voter fatigue: Why school choice is still winning after ballot measures fail

Although ballot measures promoting school choice lost in three states last week, there’s more to consider about why than first meets the eye.

That’s according to Michael McShane, national research director for EdChoice, a leading school choice advocate and tracker of choice programs across the states.

Writing in Forbes magazine, McShane said voters in Kentucky, Nebraska and Colorado faced issues such as ballot fatigue and vague language, which contributed to the measures’ defeat.

Colorado 

In the Rocky Mountain state, voters faced a host of ballot decisions. 

“Colorado had a bumper crop of ballot initiatives this year, more than any in a statewide election since 1914,” he wrote. “Coloradans were asked to weigh in on everything from banning the hunting of mountain lions, lynx, and bobcats, to a tax on gun sales, to a right to abortion. Voters had a lot to consider.” 

The amendment to establish the right to school choice in the state’s constitution fell short of the necessary 55% threshold, receiving 49% of “yes” votes. 

Additionally, while it was no surprise to see teachers’ unions and “other left-leaning organizations oppose the amendment, the Christian Home Educators of Colorado came out against it as well,” likely afraid the amendment would bring new restrictions and oversight to homeschoolers, McShane writes. At issue was language guaranteeing every student the right to a “quality education,” but no clear definition of what constitutes “quality.” 

“It looks like this initiative fell victim to unclear ballot language, poor coalition management, and a lack of a clear ‘why,’”he writes. “Why this amendment, phrased this way, in this state, at this time?” 

With lack of a clear reason, a slight majority of voters said no. 

Kentucky 

The Bluegrass State’s measure would have amended the state’s constitution to allow “the General Assembly to provide financial support for the education costs of students in kindergarten through 12th grade who are outside the system of common (public) schools.” 

Like Nebraska and Colorado, Kentucky’s constitution contains a so-called Blaine Amendment, which forbids public funding going to private or religious schools, making it difficult to enact school choice programs. 

A product of 19th-century anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic bigotry, Blaine Amendments appear in various forms in 37 state constitutions. 

The measure needed 50% of the vote to pass but received just 35%.  

McShane says the amendment’s opponents outspent proponents more than three to one, and the measure didn’t guarantee the creation of a school choice program, just the legal pathway to do so in the future. 

Kentucky also has a difficult history with both charter schools and private school choice, as the state Supreme Court has struck down bills to fund charters and create a tax credit scholarship program in the last three years. Despite legalizing charter schools in 2017, it’s one of only a few states without them, McShane writes. 

“It was an uphill battle,” he says of Kentucky. “An unclear upside and relentless barrage of potential downsides sealed Amendment 2’s fate.” 

Nebraska 

Nebraska was a slightly different case, as the measure wasn’t to approve school choice but whether to repeal a $10 million private school scholarship fund passed by the Legislature earlier this year. 

The repeal won with more than 57% of the vote. 

The pro-repeal side spent five times more than the other side, dishing out $7.4 million, or three-quarters of the cost of the legislation itself (combined, both sides spent nearly $9 million). The measure also has “a circuitous history,” McShane writes. 

“In 2023, the state Legislature passed a $25 million tax credit scholarship bill that opponents were threatening to repeal via referendum. Legislative Bill 1402 replaced the tax credit with a direct appropriation, preventing opponents from launching a challenge against the old program. Undeterred, they challenged the new bill.” 

Key Takeaways 

McShane draws three conclusions from the results: 

1. Those who oppose school choice will “go after charter schools just as easily as they will private school choice,” even though charters keep money within the “public” system, so charters should unite with school choice advocates. 

2. There’s “no sense in going small,” since school choice opponents will spend lavishly to kill even a small, targeted program like the one in Nebraska. Instead, go big and try to get broad popular appeal, because the opposition is coming either way. 

3. This won’t stop school choice, which is gaining momentum nationwide. Pro-school choice lawmakers did well in the election, including President-elect Donald Trump, who supports universal school choice for all Americans. A national school choice bill passed a key House committee in September and could find passage through a Republican-controlled legislature. 

School choice also polls well. Families have said repeatedly that they support it, even if these particular measures didn’t pass.  

Massive spending, vague language and other concerns may have doomed these three ballot measures, but school choice proponents are undeterred.  

Despite setbacks, things are “trending in school choice’s direction,” McShane concludes.