North Korean policy pivots create growing US concern about war in Asia

The U.S. is sounding the alarm on North Korea’s growing support for Russia’s war in Ukraine amidst Pyongyang’s escalating threats against the U.S., South Korea and other American allies.

Experts say the support for Russia and other moves made by North Korea in the last year might signal a willingness by its dictator, Kim Jong Un, to use force to end a decades-long stalemate with the U.S. over control of the Korean peninsula.

The latest comments by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell indicate the U.S. and its allies are trying to ramp up international pressure on the Kim regime after receiving unconfirmed reports that North Korea is sending military personnel to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine, reported the Associated Press (AP). 

“We are concerned by them and … we agreed that we will continue to monitor the situation closely,” Campbell said about U.S. claims that North Korea is “creating further instability in Europe,” by aiding Russia, according to the AP.  

The reports of North Korean military personnel being deployed to Ukraine was given added credence when Ukraine’s national broadcast network reported 18 North Koreans soldiers deserted to Ukraine immediately upon being deployed to the eastern European country, according to the Kiev Independent.  

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea signed an alliance, pledging both sides to come to the aid of the other if faced with “aggression,” reported the AP.   

Kim also ramped up escalation against South Korea this week, first closing roads, bridges and railway ties connecting North and South Korea through the demilitarized zone (DMZ), and later severing those connections by demolition. 

A video on YouTube showed North Korean demolition charges destroying a variety of roads and bridges as South Korean troops opened fire at the DMZ.    

In January, Kim renounced his family’s long-stated goal of peaceful reunification with the South and has taken active steps to solidify his alliances with Russia, China and Iran.  

Two veteran experts on the internal and external workings of North Korea warned after the policy change that Kim, like his grandfather before him, “has made a strategic decision to go to war” with the U.S. 

But unlike the 1950 Korean War, this one would be backed by 50-60 nuclear warheads that North Korea claims can reach South Korea, Japan and Guam, which is a U.S. territory. 

“The evidence of the past year opens the real possibility that the situation may have reached the point that we must seriously consider a worst case – that Pyongyang could be planning to move in ways that completely defy our calculations,” wrote Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker at 38North, a publication that specializes in North Korea.  

The commander of allied forces for the U.S. and South Korea warned in March that the focus needs to shift from dissuading Kim from developing nuclear weapons to dissuading him from using nuclear weapons. 

“We cannot have a failure of imagination,” Gen. Paul J. LaCamera told reporters about the prospect of a surprise nuclear attack by North Korea. “It’s just that simple.” 

Robert A. Manning, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, doubted the possibility of a surprise attack by North Korea against the U.S. and her allies.  

But he also said dismissing the signals Kim is sending by his provoking actions would be a mistake, not just for the U.S. but also for China and Russia. Kim most certainly is planning on making a major move, Manning said. 

“North Korea’s geopolitical repositioning has raised the possibility of a dramatic move by Pyongyang in the next six to 18 months,” Manning said this month.  

The specter of conflict with North Korea and the U.S. takes on added importance as China, under Communist Party Secretary Xi Jinping, has shown a growing willingness to use force to attempt the reunification of China and Taiwan.  

The U.S. has repeatedly warned China that any attempt to use force to annex Taiwan will require the U.S. to attack.