US forces converge on Iran as Trump weighs ‘decapitation’ of regime

As President Donald Trump weighs his military options against Iran, the U.S. is assembling an unprecedented fleet in and around the Middle East, including in the Straits of Hormuz.

No strike order has been issued, but The Lion reported Thursday the U.S. president will make a decision within ten days on an attack if no progress with Iran is made in talks about dismantling its nuclear weapons research.

The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is already in the region, joined by the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, placing two full carrier air wings within operational range of Iranian territory, multiple media outlets have reported.

According to maps of the deployments, the Ford group is stationed in the Mediterranean, while the Lincoln group is stationed near the Straits of Hormuz.

Long-range bombers capable of penetrating hardened and deeply buried facilities have also surged to regional bases, supported by aerial refueling tankers, airborne early warning aircraft and battle management platforms, according to The War Zone.

The force structure points to attack planning rather than deterrent and defense.

The overlapping air wings will allow U.S. commanders to generate sustained round-the-clock attacks while preserving defensive coverage of the strike groups themselves.

The buildup comes as building activity for nuclear enrichment inside Iran continues and diplomatic channels show little progress on halting the Ayatollahs quest for a nuke.

But it’s clear by the force deployment the groundwork for a strike has advanced to the point that an attack can be executed on short notice.

Senior administration officials have indicated that they’re ready to launch, according to the Washington Post.

The military assets, combined with allied Israeli forces, would create an “overwhelming advantage” militarily over Iran, one expert told The Post.

“They’ll definitely take terrible damage from combined U.S.-Israeli strikes,” said Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration. “But that doesn’t mean it ends quickly, or clean.”

Iranian retaliation might include ballistic missile launches, proxy militia attacks across Iraq and Syria, maritime disruption and cyber operations attacking the U.S or U.S. forces, according to The New York Times

Iran has already responded with its own show of force, albeit less impressive.

Naval drills just conducted in the Strait of Hormuz included limited participation from China and Russia, underscoring Tehran’s claim to influence over one of the world’s most strategically sensitive waterways.

The exercise was modest in scope but deliberately timed alongside visible U.S. force movements, according to an analysis by TWZ.

But defense experts doubt there’s real risk that Russia or China would get involved in defense of Iran if the U.S. attacked.

“I don’t believe it increases in any significant way the likelihood of conflict with Russia and China, but it probably would introduce additional considerations for any planned strikes against Iran,” Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and retired U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer, told TWZ.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant share of global oil exports, making it central to any escalation scenario.

Iranian doctrine emphasizes asymmetric maritime tactics including fast attack craft swarms, coastal anti-ship missile batteries, drones and mine warfare, hoping to create worldwide economic pressure by shutting down the Straits.

U.S. naval assets now in theater – including guided missile destroyers integrated into the carrier groups – are structured to counter those threats.

The density of U.S. assets is noteworthy: Stealth bombers positioned for hardened targets, with tanker aircraft enabling sustained tempo are on station. Carrier aviation providing strike flexibility and airborne command platforms coordinating operations are on standby.

The force positioning suggests the Trump administration is preparing “for something much more extended,” Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration told the Washington Post.

Trump has consistently suggested that he supports a new regime for Iran, but it’s unclear if he’d give the greenlight to U.S. forces to sustain the type of engagement it would take to topple it.

“Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen,” Trump told reporters a week ago.

Jason Dempsey, a retired Army officer at the Center for a New American Security, told the Washington Post that people shouldn’t read too much into the Venezuela operation that toppled Maduro so quickly to get an idea of what regime change in Iran might look like.

“What we did in Venezuela was such a unique operation, and a one-off,” he said.

Several military members contacted by The Lion, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, agreed regime change would more likely look like “decapitation strikes” on Iranian leadership, counting on Iranian citizens to eventually overthrow the leaderless regime.

“The IRGC will drop their weapons if confronted by a combination of Iranians and U.S. attacks,” one former military member with experience in Iraq said about the Islamist army propping up the regime.

He added, “Iranians demonstrating don’t want a nuclear weapons program, they don’t care about it. They want the regime and the elements propping it up decimated.”

Uniformly, however, they rejected the idea of U.S. troops entering Iran to topple the regime.

“More likely [The Supreme Leader] will flee or be removed by a revolution,” said another retired officer.