Virginia’s public-school enrollment is declining faster than expected

Public school enrollment in Virginia is decreasing faster than expected, and started going down long before the pandemic, new data reveals.

The University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service reports enrollment stagnation and decrease in most counties.

Between 2010 and 2019, just a handful of counties increased their enrollment by 5% or more. 

And although experts expected the public-school population to shrink – declining birth rates are a common explanation – they didn’t expect it to happen so fast.  

As the chart from the Cooper Center shows, the pandemic caused an enrollment gap that has forced many districts from coast to coast to close or consolidate schools.  

All this is despite Virginia’s overall population increasing 660,000 since 2010.  

Looking forward to the next five years, K-12 enrollment in Virginia will continue shrinking, as few counties are expected to have any significant growth.  

Data from the National Center for Education Statistics tells the same story. Between 2010 and 2021, NCES reported a slight overall reduction in Virginia enrollment. But it expects the student population to shrink by 7%, or 88,000 students, between 2021 and 2031.  

Some students may seek alternative charter schools, which have grown 3% in Virginia since the pandemic, or leave the public system altogether.  

The reality of fewer school-age children – and more families seeking educational opportunities outside of public schools – raises questions about the future of education funding and whether public education was really doing its job in the first place.  

According to the state’s standardized tests in 2023, elementary and middle school student achievement has gotten worse since 2019. Reading has declined by nearly 6%, while math scores have worsened by over 15%.  

High school seniors don’t fare any better. Virginia’s 2022-23 exams showed just two-thirds of high school seniors were proficient in reading, writing and math. Less than 45% met standards in history/social studies and science.  

Some claim Virginia’s schools are underfunded, but the state currently spends over $15,000 per pupil, which is on par with the national average.