Public schools report widespread, persistent enrollment declines, DOE says

Public school enrollment has slowed or stalled in all but four states, and most states are showing a decrease.

That’s according to data from 2019 to 2023 released by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), a branch of the U.S. Department of Education.

Overall trends were shocking, with only four states – Idaho, Delaware and North and South Dakota – and the District of Columbia experiencing growth above 1% in their K-12 populations.

Eleven states saw no significant difference in enrollment, and six saw small decreases.  

The remaining 29 states lost 2% or more of their public school students. 

In real numbers, public schools enrolled nearly 51 million students in 2019 but only 49.5 million in 2023. 

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many parents to rethink their child’s education, and this new data reveals those changes have persisted well beyond the pandemic itself.  

A second figure from NCES shows that between 2022 and 2023 no states – and only the District of Columbia – saw any significant growth in public school enrollment.  

Instead, states continued to lose students. 

“The data provide relevant insight into the shifting education landscape,” NCES Commissioner Peggy Carr said in a press release. “NCES’s ongoing efforts will enhance our understanding of these patterns and support evidenced-based policymaking to benefit schools, students, and parents.” 

As the public education system continues to bleed students, districts will be forced to close or consolidate schools.  

Often such closures are opposed by parents who want a stable environment for their child. However, district leadership considers them necessary to balance the budget and maximize resources.  

The exodus from public schools is in part due to parents seeking alternative models of education. 

Especially since the pandemic, charter schools and homeschools have boomed in popularity, as well as a variety of religious institutions like Christian, Catholic and Jewish schools. 

The proliferation of school choice programs has aided this exodus as it provides families with the financial resources to attend schools or utilize services that would otherwise have been unaffordable. Currently, 13 states have so-called “universal choice,” where students qualify for the funding regardless of family background, location or income. 

Additionally, the declining birth rate in the U.S. means there are fewer children than there used to be. 

A replacement birth rate would be 2.1 births per woman, but the American average was just 1.62 in 2023. 

Granted, the K-12 population received a boost from immigration, but less than 15% of immigrants are 19 or younger. In comparison, over 22% of Americans are under 18. 

The report aligns with forecasts made by the Learning Counsel that by 2030, half of American students could be educated outside the public school system.