Your guide to Election Day: States and races to watch

(The Daily Signal) – Seven swing states are too close to call headed into Election Day, Nov. 5. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, spent much of the last month vying for votes among the states that are expected to determine who the next president will be. 

Polls indicate Trump and Harris are neck and neck in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Within each swing state are several counties that are also too close to call and could be the deciding factors in who wins each state.  

Control of the House of Representatives and the Senate also hang in the balance this election, with close races in several states expected to determine whether Congress will flip for the next two years, and if one party might enjoy control of both chambers.

Below are all the states and races to watch on Election Day.

Arizona 

Electoral Votes: 11 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 49.4% 
• Trump – 49.1%  

Counties to Watch: 

• Maricopa 

Georgia 

Electoral Votes: 16 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 49.5% 
• Trump – 49.2% 

Counties to Watch: 

• Cobb  
• Henry 

Michigan  

Electoral Votes: 15 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 50.6% 
• Trump – 47.8% 

Counties to Watch: 

• Kent 
• Oakland 

Wild Card:  

The Muslim vote in Michigan could largely determine the state’s election night results. Muslim leaders have rallied Wolverine State voters to deny Harris their vote in protest of the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas that has left thousands dead in Gaza. It is not clear, however, that Muslim voters will back Trump in any significant way if they choose not to support Harris. Many have expressed support for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.  

Nevada  

Electoral Votes: 6 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 50.1% 
• Trump – 47.7% 

Counties to Watch: 

• Clark 
• Washoe  

Wild Card: 

Nevada has a large Hispanic population and about a third of Clark County is Hispanic. Trump has made inroads with Hispanic voters, especially male Hispanic voters this election.  

North Carolina 

Electoral Votes: 16 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 48.6% 
• Trump – 49.9% 

Counties to Watch: 

• Cabarrus 
• Nash 
• Pasquotank 

Pennsylvania  

Electoral Votes: 19 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 50.0% 
• Trump – 48.8% 

Counties to Watch: 

• Bucks 
• Erie   

Wisconsin 

Electoral Votes: 10 

2020 Results:  

• Biden – 49.5% 
• Trump – 48.8% 

Counties to Watch: 

• Door 
• Sauk 
• Waukesha  

Senate Races to Watch  

There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2024.  

Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in the Senate. Fifty-one senators are in the working coalition of Democrats and independents. 

Republicans have an advantage this election cycle, however, as Democrats are defending 23 of those seats, while Republicans are only defending 11. To win the Senate, Republicans need either a net gain of 1 seat if they also win the White House, or a net gain of 2 seats if they don’t win the White House, as the vice president breaks ties in the Senate.  

Here are seven Senate races to watch:  

• Sen. Ted Cruz vs. Rep. Collin Allred
  • Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has a three-point lead over Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas. Cruz has slammed Allred for his voting record on male participation in female sports, causing the Democrat to deny his formerly pro-trans sports stance.  
• Sen. Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
  • The latest poll from Research Co. shows Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., holding a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger, former Florida representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.   
• Rep. Elissa Slotkin vs. former Rep. Mike Rogers
  • While a Trafalgar group poll from Nov. 1-3 showed U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., as even, a new Research Co. poll showed Slotkin with a 6-percentage-point lead over the Republican. 
• Sen. Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde
  • Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., is one point ahead of Republican businessman Eric Hovde, according to a Nov. 2-3 Research Co. poll. The race is neck-and-neck, and Hovde had a one-point lead in a Nov. 1-3 Trafalgar Group poll.  
• Sen. John Tester vs. Tim Sheehy
  • While an Oct. 16 poll showed veteran Tim Sheehy and incumbent Sen. John Tester, D-Mont., as even, Sheehy took a three-point lead in an Emerson College poll from Oct. 23-25. Over the summer, Tester was considered the Democratic senator most likely to lose a reelection bid. 
• Rep. Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake
  • Recent polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show the Democratic Ruben Gallego maintaining a narrow lead over Kari Lake in Arizona, though the Republican has caught up in recent weeks, and even taken the lead in some polls. Gallego is an Arizona state representative, and Lake is a former gubernatorial candidate and TV personality.  

House Races to Watch:  

Republicans hold a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies. All 435 seats are up for election. Democrats need a net gain of six districts to win a majority in the chamber, while Republicans can only lose a net of five districts to maintain their majority. They will need to pick up one or more districts to increase their majority. 

Democratic Toss Ups 

• Alaska: Rep. Mary Peltola vs. Nick Begich
  • Small business owner Republican Nick Begich has a four-point lead over Democratic incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola in this key toss-up race, according to the latest polling from the National Republican Congressional Committee. Peltola currently represents Alaska’s singular congressional district.  
• Rep. Jared Golden vs Austin Theriault
  • Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault are locked in a tight race in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, according to a new independent poll. A new University of New Hampshire survey shows the two candidates essentially tied. Forty-five percent of those who responded said they have voted or will vote for Golden, and 44% said they have voted or will vote for Theriault in the Nov. 5 elections.  
• Eugene Vindman vs. Derrick Anderson
  • Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson are running for the open seat in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, vacated by current U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor as a Democrat. A Sept. 15-17 Ragnar Research poll showed Vindman and Anderson as tied, but Vindman took a two-point lead in the latest poll.  
• Rep. Don Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout
  • The once solidly Democratic 1st Congressional District of North Carolina is now a toss-up. Democratic incumbent Don Davis is facing off against Republican Laurie Buckhout. The latest poll shows Davis with a strong 11-point lead over Buckhout.  

Republican Toss-Ups 

• Rep. Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran
  • Rep. Michelle Steel, a two-term Republican congresswoman, faces Derek Tran, a Democrat who served in the Army and is a second-generation Vietnamese American, in the race for the Orange County, California, House seat. While an Oct. 8-10 poll showed Steel with a four-point lead, Tran took a three-point lead in an Oct. 13-15 poll.  
• Rep. Zach Nunn vs. Lanon Baccam
  • While all four of Iowa’s congressional seats are currently held by Republicans, polls show Democrats have an advantage in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts. A Sept. 19-22 GQR poll showed Democratic veteran Lanon Baccam with a four-point lead over incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd District.
• Rep. Mark Molinaro vs. Josh Riley
  • New York’s 19th Congressional District, covering all or part of 11 upstate counties, has a tight and expensive race between Democratic challenger Josh Riley and incumbent Republican Rep. Mark Molinaro. Riley holds a four-point lead in the latest poll. 
• Rep. Scott Perry vs. Janelle Stelson
  • Six-term incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry is running against former abc27 News and WGAL anchor Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research released a poll from Oct. 4-7 that shows Stelson leading Perry 48% to 39% with a 5% margin of error. 

When Will Races Be Called?

States vary on when the deadlines for certifying election results or auditing the vote. The website VoteFair2024.com, a project of the Election Integrity Network, lists the deadlines for each state—with a focus on the seven battleground states.  

• Arizona: Nov. 25 
• Georgia: Nov. 22  
• Michigan: Nov. 25  
• Nevada: Dec. 3  
•  North Carolina: Dec. 2  
• Pennsylvania: Dec. 11  
• Wisconsin: Nov. 19   

The Daily Signal will bring you “Top News In Ten” and a longer version of “The Tony Kinnett Cast” on Election Day, so be sure to tune in to catch the news of the day and follow along with us as we break down this historic election.